Week Of: 02/09/2026

02-06-26 10:22am The major economic data released this week was mixed, but investors focused a little more on labor market weakness than on strength in other areas such as manufacturing. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower.

The latest JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover rates) report, covering the month of December, caught investors by surprise. At the end of December, there were just 6.5 million job openings, far below the consensus forecast of 7.2 million and the lowest level since September 2020. A smaller number of openings suggests that companies face less pressure to raise wages to hire enough workers, a sign of weakness for the labor market.

Another component of the JOLTS report revealed that the layoff rate was 1.1%, roughly unchanged from a year ago. However, separate data from a large outplacement firm indicated that layoffs soared in January. Planned job cuts increased sharply from December to the highest level for the month of January since 2009 and were up 118% from the same period one year ago.

In contrast to the labor market data, two significant economic reports released this week from the Institute of Supply Management revealed stronger than expected results. The ISM national manufacturing sector index jumped to 52.6, far above the consensus forecast of 48.5 and the highest level since August 2022. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the sectors and below 50 a contraction. The ISM national services sector index fell slightly to 53.8, but this still exceeded the consensus forecast. The higher tariffs on foreign goods imposed last year may be providing a lift to domestic manufacturing companies and helping them close the performance gap with services.

After a very strong start to the year, bad winter weather finally halted the momentum for mortgage applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to refinance declined 5% from last week but still were a massive 117% higher than one year ago. Purchase applications fell 14% from the prior week and were up 4% from last year at this time.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to monitor comments from Fed officials for hints about future monetary policy. Delayed a bit by the recent government shutdown, the key Employment report will be released on Wednesday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation are always closely watched. Existing Home Sales will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services, will come out on Friday.

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